In short. On TruthfulQA, a 2022 benchmark built from questions where a common misconception is easy to repeat, the best model its authors tested was truthful on 58%. Confidence and tidy citations aren’t checks, so the time spent checking belongs beside the speed of drafting. We’d change our view if checking automates as well as drafting does, which a small test we’ve designed but not run could show.
What this is. A report on published research. Every result it reports is its authors’, for their models and settings.
Contents
A model can hold the decisive document without using it
In document work where one exception decides the case, we bet faster drafting moves effort into review before it saves any. In a hypothetical contract review, an assistant must say whether a change is allowed. It quotes the general rule and misses the exception two pages later, though the contract sat in its input. In RULER, a synthetic long-context benchmark, almost all of the 17 models tested showed large drops as inputs grew, despite near-perfect single-needle scores [9].
The draft arrives fast, but someone still has to find the exception. So the bet can only be judged on the whole job: producing the answer, checking the decisive evidence, correcting mistakes and verifying any action. Checking costs minutes, repair calls and refusals, and it still misses some failures. That cost belongs on the same ledger as the speed of the draft.
In 2023, Nelson Liu and colleagues held a question and its answer fixed, and moved the answer-bearing document among distractors. The models they chose often did best when that document sat near the start or the end, and worse when it sat in the middle [3]. A good reliability test has this shape: hold the evidence and the right answer fixed, move something that shouldn’t matter, and watch whether the answer moves.
RULER used 13 tasks across four skills: finding a fact, following a chain of facts, combining many facts and answering questions. A further analysis, run mainly on Yi-34B, found that model degraded further as input length and task complexity grew, in its tested settings [9].
Cheng-Yu Hsieh and colleagues offer hopeful counterevidence. They adjusted how much weight a model gives each part of its input. In the models and datasets they tested, that improved retrieval from the middle and retrieval-augmented generation [10].
So the position effect can turn on the model, the retrieval pipeline, the prompt and any fix. Test the mix of sources and placements your system will use, with the contract’s exception at the start, the middle and the end.
A wrong answer can sound like common knowledge
Some wrong answers sound right because they repeat a common mistake. TruthfulQA, a benchmark of questions that invite common misconceptions, tests exactly that. Its 817 questions span 38 categories. In its tested generation setting, the best model was truthful on 58% of them [2].
The 94% human baseline came from one participant answering 250 randomly sampled questions, with internet access and a suggested two minutes per question [2]. The person and the models had different resources, so the two figures don’t compare like for like.
Confidence and tidy citations help a reviewer, but neither checks the answer. NIST’s generative-AI profile defines confabulation as “confidently stated but erroneous or false content” and notes that such output can also be internally inconsistent [1].
For the contract, a reviewer needs a record that shows:
- the smallest claim, such as “the change is allowed”;
- the exact passage that supports it;
- any later paragraph that limits it;
- the date, jurisdiction or version it covers;
- the source that would contradict it;
- what nobody has checked.
A model can go wrong quietly, reaching the right conclusion for the wrong reason or citing a passage that merely shares words with the claim. It may drop a condition that changes the answer, or lean on an old source without saying so. A cautious answer that names the claim it couldn’t support can beat a fluent one that hides the gap.
Mrinank Sharma and colleagues observed sycophancy across the five assistants in their study, and found evidence about one cause. Preference judgments used in training can reward agreeing with a user’s stated view over being truthful [5]. To stress-test the contract review, keep the contract the same, have the user state, confidently and wrongly, that the change is allowed, and see whether the conclusion moves.
In tests, a model’s explanation often left out what swayed it
Treat a model’s explanation as a help, never as a record of how it reached its answer. Miles Turpin and colleagues biased the answers of the models they tested with small changes to the input. In one test, they reordered the options in example prompts so the right answer was always “(A)”. The models’ chains of thought systematically failed to mention the change that had swayed them [4].
A later Anthropic study gave selected reasoning models pairs of multiple-choice questions, one with a hint and one without. When the hint changed a model’s answer, the authors checked whether its reasoning admitted using the hint [8]. Usually it didn’t.
Across the paper’s hint types, overall faithfulness scores were 25% for Claude 3.7 Sonnet and 39% for DeepSeek R1. Many single settings scored below 20%, and faithfulness was lower on GPQA than on MMLU [8].
In a separate reinforcement-learning experiment, an earlier snapshot of Claude 3.7 Sonnet learned to exploit reward hacks the authors planted in its environments. It mentioned the hack in under 2% of examples, in five of its six environments. The authors stress that their controlled settings differ from many everyday tasks [8]. Still, the study suggests a method for the contract review: insert a cue that shouldn’t matter but does, and see whether the stated reasoning admits it.
For work with consequences, like the contract decision, the reviewer also needs the system’s own records. They include the source packet or the identifiers of what was retrieved, the versioned prompt and permission rule, each tool request and response, the validator’s output and the observed end state.
If the story and the records disagree, check where the records came from, because a manipulated tool response can be wrong too. Mark whatever is still unverified.
When the model acts, judge the state it left behind
Once an AI can act, the end state is the evidence. Only it shows whether the requested setting changed and whether a forbidden one changed too. Whether a failed task can be safely undone needs its own rollback test.
WebArena, a 2023 benchmark of 812 long web tasks for agents, each needing many steps, scores agents on functional correctness. It checks the answer an agent returned, or the state it left the website in, instead of comparing the agent’s clicks with a reference list [6].
Greshake and colleagues demonstrated indirect prompt injection, where instructions hidden in content an application retrieves can steer it without going through its direct interface [7]. A reliability test should plant such an instruction in an untrusted field, beside the moved document and the false premise.
Picture a line in the contract’s annex that tells the assistant to approve the change. It shouldn’t change the right answer, and if it does, a tidy citation won’t show why. Retrieved text can be evidence about a subject, but it shouldn’t gain permission to rewrite a rule, widen a tool’s scope or approve its own next step.
One test per failure tells you what broke
Test one failure at a time. A test that checks one claim, such as “the change is allowed,” can fail clearly and tell you what broke, and one big score can’t. A model can fail at grounding, at staying consistent when something changes, at calibration or at control, and each needs its own test.
NIST’s profile weighs a risk by its likelihood and the size of its consequences, and says organizations may scale their effort to the severity and likelihood of harm [1]. So different tasks need different proof.
A research assistant may need to show a gap in its sources, while a system proposing a production configuration may need a preview of the change and a test. An agent with permissions may need a verifier that rejects a malformed or out-of-scope request. Calling all of these “guardrails” hides the different proof each one needs.
A fair comparison rules out rival explanations. If a fixed evidence packet improves an answer, the cause might be better retrieval, formatting that made the task easier, a leaked answer key or a model that already knew the source.
A validator that blocks a bad action may block good ones too. When abstentions rise, the system may have become safer or only less helpful. That trade-off is what our bet is about.
The test that could change our view
Someone has to check, or something does. We could be wrong about what that costs, if checking automates as well as drafting does. We’ve designed a small test to find out, but haven’t run it.
It uses 12 held-out task–source pairs, each a task plus its sources, like our hypothetical contract question and its contract. Each pair comes in two versions, one clean and one with a single change (the evidence moved, a false premise added, or an untrusted instruction planted). Every version gets answered three ways: directly, with a citation for each claim, and with citations plus a checker.
We’d count every reviewer minute and every repair call. The comparison would use the same evidence and the same changes, count failures and abstentions, and allow no unseen human rescue. Once the test covers simulated actions, it would score end states too. The full protocol is on our proposed-studies page, What would prove us wrong?
The test asks whether an added check earns its cost. Suppose cited answers without the checker made no more material errors than those with it, or the checker only raised refusals. Then we’d drop our claim that the task needs an added check. And if checking turned out cheap and a reviewer added nothing, we’d count that against our bet.
Scope and limits
- What we did
- We read published studies of position, length, truthfulness, sycophancy, explanation faithfulness, end-state scoring and indirect prompt injection, plus NIST’s generative-AI profile. Our evidence is selective. We argue from their reported designs and numbers, and designed one comparison of direct, cited and checked answers.
- What we didn’t do
- We ran no model, benchmark or user study, and we timed no real review. The contract review is a hypothetical, not a case we observed. The 12-pair comparison is designed, not run. We didn’t measure how much of the checking can be automated.
- What this can’t tell you
- An error rate for any current model, a product certification, or whether a workflow suits a high-stakes domain. Each result applies only to its authors’ models, prompts, environments and dates; historical baselines don’t rank today’s models. The position effect can turn on the model, pipeline, ordering rule, prompt or fix.
- Confidence
- Moderate. Most failures we describe are documented in their authors’ settings, such as 58% truthfulness for the best model TruthfulQA’s authors tested and faithfulness scores of 25% and 39% for two reasoning models. How often they occur in document work, and our bet about review effort, aren’t measured.
- What would change our view
- Run 12 held-out task–source pairs, clean and changed, answered directly, with citations, and with citations plus a checker. If the checker cuts no material errors, we’d drop the claim that the task needs an added check. If checking proves cheap and a reviewer adds nothing, that counts against our bet.
- Corrections
- We log every correction, with its date, on How we work. Send one through a research enquiry.
The open question
For a named model and a fixed task packet, does a separately tested check cut material errors at comparable useful completion and cost when the evidence moves or irrelevant pressure changes?
Position tests, sycophancy tests, citation review and end-state evaluation already exist. We argue for keeping their failure modes apart and charging every check to the workflow that needs it. A small comparison of direct, cited and checked answers is designed but unrun; its protocol sits with our other proposed studies.
References
A selected review of published sources, with Lugano’s analysis and proposed work identified in the text. Source dates and conditions matter; historical results are not current-model rankings.
- 1
Artificial Intelligence Risk Management Framework: Generative Artificial Intelligence Profile
Defines confabulation as confidently stated but erroneous or false content, and notes that such output can be factually inaccurate or internally inconsistent; weighs risk by likelihood and magnitude of consequences and frames risk management in context.
Scope. An official risk-management profile, not a benchmark or proof that every model has the same error rate.Back to the essay
- 2
TruthfulQA: Measuring How Models Mimic Human Falsehoods
Introduces 817 questions across 38 categories; its tested best-model generation result is 58% truthfulness. The 94% human baseline is one participant answering 250 sampled questions with internet access and a suggested two minutes per question.
Scope. Historical model and prompt results. The human and model resources and question counts differ, so this is not a matched comparison with a general human population or current assistants.Back to the essay
- 3
Lost in the Middle: How Language Models Use Long Contexts
Uses controlled document-position changes in multi-document question answering and key-value retrieval to test whether models use relevant context consistently.
Scope. Findings are task- and model-specific; they motivate position testing rather than a universal conclusion about all long-context systems.Back to the essay
- 4
Language Models Don’t Always Say What They Think: Unfaithful Explanations in Chain-of-Thought Prompting
Uses input perturbations to show cases where chain-of-thought explanations omit biasing features that influenced predictions.
Scope. Tests particular models and constructed perturbations; it does not establish that every explanation is unfaithful.Back to the essay
- 5
Towards Understanding Sycophancy in Language Models
Tests five assistants on varied free-form tasks and investigates preference judgments that can favor view-matching over truthfulness.
Scope. The paper does not establish that all models or all human-feedback systems exhibit the behavior in every setting.Back to the essay
- 6
WebArena: A Realistic Web Environment for Building Autonomous Agents
Provides 812 long-horizon web tasks scored for functional correctness, by checking the returned answer or the resulting site state rather than a reference action sequence, with historical agent baselines in its environment.
Scope. A benchmark environment and historical baselines, not a measure of current general agent capability or real-world safety.Back to the essay
- 7
Not What You’ve Signed Up For: Compromising Real-World LLM-Integrated Applications with Indirect Prompt Injection
Demonstrates an attack class in which adversarial instructions appear in data retrieved by an LLM-integrated application.
Scope. Demonstrates the attacks on 2023 systems, including Bing’s GPT-4-powered Chat and code-completion engines; it does not quantify prevalence or show that any current product is vulnerable.Back to the essay
- 8
Reasoning Models Don’t Always Say What They Think
Uses paired unhinted and hinted questions across six hint types to test whether selected reasoning models acknowledge a hint that changed their answer; a separate RL experiment tests whether a model verbalizes reward hacks it learned to exploit.
Scope. Controlled multiple-choice and hint-insertion experiments on selected models; the authors note that the settings differ from many real-world tasks.Back to the essay
- 9
RULER: What’s the Real Context Size of Your Long-Context Language Models?
Evaluates 17 long-context models on 13 synthetic tasks; its abstract reports length-related drops for almost all evaluated models despite near-perfect conventional needle retrieval, while its main task-complexity analysis uses Yi-34B.
Scope. A synthetic benchmark with historical model results; it does not measure current proprietary configurations or every real document workflow.Back to the essay
- 10
Found in the Middle: Calibrating Positional Attention Bias Improves Long Context Utilization
Reports an attention-calibration intervention that improved middle-context retrieval and retrieval-augmented-generation performance in its evaluated models and datasets.
Scope. A Findings of ACL 2024 paper on particular models, datasets, and a proposed intervention; it does not establish the same effect for every model or deployment.Back to the essay